Great read--Tanner Johnston https://tanner-johnston.com/2024/09/16/the-myth-of-the-non-consensus-vc/ goes as far as re-describing non-consensus as pre-consensus. Definitely super interesting to see venture firms like forerunner investing in "tech enabled services" businesses typically reserved for buyout models.
I think betting on "vertical integrators" is definitely currently in the "non-consensus" bets category at present but one that will become mainstream over time.
Vertical integration is on the radar. Not Boring Capital just wrote a four part series that is a great read. I highly recommend Link below. The question I ask is will vertical integration be available to small early stage venture or will it be a playground for billionaires given the scale involved.
Great article Kevin!! Interesting observation is that some of the earlier non-consensus bets have turned into mainstream ones - examples that come to mind include longevity, defense, and even a resurgence of consumer (of course there's survivorship bias here as well).
Curious to see which of today's non-consensus bets will materialize into something better.
To be honest even among AI startups it's still just the same handful of small Angel investors making the majority of the early bets. The concentration of VC capital means the generative AI movement or bubble we'll keep exaggerating the Monopoly capitalism we have to today. I don't think the average person on the street whether in the United States or India or China believes this is a good thing.
What is the evidence to back this up? This could be true, but other scenarios are also possible. For example, if one startup develops AGI, and they take over everything, then the best returns would be to just invest as much as possible in them. They may even be a hot startup, but billionaire dollars valuations could turn into trillions.
Great read--Tanner Johnston https://tanner-johnston.com/2024/09/16/the-myth-of-the-non-consensus-vc/ goes as far as re-describing non-consensus as pre-consensus. Definitely super interesting to see venture firms like forerunner investing in "tech enabled services" businesses typically reserved for buyout models.
I think betting on "vertical integrators" is definitely currently in the "non-consensus" bets category at present but one that will become mainstream over time.
Vertical integration is on the radar. Not Boring Capital just wrote a four part series that is a great read. I highly recommend Link below. The question I ask is will vertical integration be available to small early stage venture or will it be a playground for billionaires given the scale involved.
https://open.substack.com/pub/notboring/p/vertical-integrators?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=nmh0
Yep - Packy did a great job with that series!
I think earlier stage investors can play in that space but probably not in the US!
Great article Kevin!! Interesting observation is that some of the earlier non-consensus bets have turned into mainstream ones - examples that come to mind include longevity, defense, and even a resurgence of consumer (of course there's survivorship bias here as well).
Curious to see which of today's non-consensus bets will materialize into something better.
Definitely a TON of survivorship bias here!
To be honest even among AI startups it's still just the same handful of small Angel investors making the majority of the early bets. The concentration of VC capital means the generative AI movement or bubble we'll keep exaggerating the Monopoly capitalism we have to today. I don't think the average person on the street whether in the United States or India or China believes this is a good thing.
Sometimes it’s better to be a contrarian than a conformist in a crowded market.
What is the evidence to back this up? This could be true, but other scenarios are also possible. For example, if one startup develops AGI, and they take over everything, then the best returns would be to just invest as much as possible in them. They may even be a hot startup, but billionaire dollars valuations could turn into trillions.